One of the weirdest takes greeted us all at the start of the week. A certain film director—not even a good one—said that storms entering the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR), an invisible line set by the World Meteorological Organization that stretches several kilometers away from our country’s nearest eastern coastline, should not be announced as news.
He said that this confuses common Filipinos because they interpret this as equivalent to a landfall event. But is this the case? There are clues in articles published last week that this certain director may not have been reading the news after all. Let me explain.
Let me quote the exact post that the director said:
Hot take: a typhoon entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility shouldn’t be announced as news, kasi it causes confusion/panic to regular people who assume that PAR = landfall. Pang-meteorologist lang dapat ang info na yan.
—some director
For such a short post to reach so many levels of absurdity is a feat, I must say. Let’s start with the claim that people assume PAR is equivalent to a landfall.
Enter, Then Landfall
We will use articles from the Philippine Star, Philippine Daily Inquirer, ABS-CBN News, Rappler, and Manila Bullet, which all came out the moment the Tropical Storm Kristine (international name: Trami) entered PAR.
It is clear in news reports that entering PAR and making landfall are two separate events. No one will ever be confused by this.
In the case of the Philippine Star, the lead paragraph (first paragraph) was, “Tropical Depression Kristine entered the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) and is expected to intensify into a typhoon and make landfall in Northern Luzon by Thursday evening or Friday morning, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said yesterday.”
It is clear in the lead paragraph that the typhoon entered and is expected to make a landfall. Even if one only reads the first paragraph, that clear distinction between the two events are clear enough that it is impossible to mistake the two.
“Tropical Depression Kristine entered the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) early Monday morning and it’s forecast to develop into a typhoon before landfall over Northern Luzon towards the weekend.”
Again, even if one only reads the first paragraph, it is clear enough that one is an event that follows the other, not that the two are simultaneous.
What about the Manila Bulletin? The mention of a landfall when Kristine entered PAR was only in the third paragraph, but what’s good about Manila Bulletin’s online articles is that they have an “at a glance” portion summarizing the content. The second and third bullets clearly mention that Kristine “may make landfall” and that typhoon signal no. 4 may be raised “ahead of its landfall.” So clearly, there is also that distinction between entering PAR and making landfall.
When ABS-CBN News posted an online version of their news, the mention of a landfall was made in the fourth paragraph, but still, it should still be clear for anyone that entering PAR is different from making a landfall.
I can’t find GMA News’ online article on Kristine entering PAR, but here is their broadcast when it entered. A little over a minute into the report, the weather reporter said that it may make landfall if it continues its track. But television broadcast media should not be a problem if this is the director’s problem because there are visual guides to show that the typhoon has not made contact with land yet.
The only news organization that buried the information about Kristine making landfall was Rappler, which placed that information at the end of the report.
However, none of these reports failed to mention whether a typhoon is expected to make a landfall or not when they reported it entering PAR. This should not confuse anyone other than those who only read the headlines. Lesson: Not everything can be included in the headline, so please read or watch the news in its entirety.
Not Reporting
What does it mean though, if reports only include landfall events? This is the most absurd part of that “hot take.” Typhoons can already devastate a region and affect marine vessels even if they haven’t entered PAR yet.
Even before a typhoon makes a landfall, it is already affecting the eastern regions of the country. It is funny that the director said in a separate post that “‘di porket binabantayan ay may epektong direkta sa Pilipinas.” Bicol is one of the regions that benefit from this information. Our local disaster risk reduction and management councils are able to take necessary actions and tap the needed resources in anticipation of the effects of a weather disturbance.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) is required to give regular “severe weather bulletin” once a weather disturbance enters PAR. It is this red line here:
What the director doesn’t realize is that when a typhoon makes a landfall, it is already too late if news is only getting out. By definition, a landfall event means the typhoon’s eye, the calmest portion of the storm, has made contact with land. A landfall does not mean that a land area is already under tropical wind cyclone signal no. 1.
Science
From 1989 to 2018, only 32 percent of typhoons that entered PAR made landfall. This does not mean that only 32 percent of typhoons devastated communities on the ground.
From 1989 to 1998, typhoons dumped 804 to 1,912 millimeters of rain. From 1999 to 2018, typhoons dumped 2,844 to 4,941 millimeters of rain. If this worrying trend continues, it means that we can expect more flooding, landslides, storm surges, and other devastation caused by typhoons. Due to the climate crisis, typhoons are becoming slower, which is exacerbating our problems even more. The amount of rainfall due to storms are directly proportional to their duration and translation (speed and direction).
The more information communities get, the better they will be prepared weeks, days, or even hours ahead.
Knowing whether a typhoon has entered PAR, is not “pang-meteorologist lang dapat na info,” like what the ill-informed director is claiming.
